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2-3 on the best bets again today making the total since we started taking count 18-23.

Back to backs for The Knicks, Bucks and Lakers

Best bets for today

Boston vs Orlando

The Magic have been horrible lately (sorry Rob). They are 1-9 in their last 10 with a differential of -8.9. The Celtics are on the other end of that scale (7-3 with a differential of +7.0).
Pick: Boston -7.5

Portland vs Charlotte

I can see Dame Lillard going for 40 tonight to prove that he should have been an all star selection. The Hornets had one of the best shooting nights of the season vs the Kings and then one of the worst the very next game vs Utah. I don’t think they have the consistency to keep up with the Blazers fueled by one of the best scorers in the game with something to prove.
Pick: Portland -4.0

Dallas vs Brooklyn

I spoke about the Mavericks struggles scoring away from home a few days back. Well that doesn’t spread to their home court where the average a healthy 104 points per game and have a 13-8 record. By comparison the Nets are just 4 -16 on the road and over the last team games are just 2 – 8 (with a differential of -11.8).
Pick: Mavericks -9.5

Mavs – GP asked me a while ago to deep dive the Mavs. For many reasons, we have not got to the podcast yet. As GP points out, the Mavs have been horrible on the road and good at home.

When I looked at the Mavs, they were hitting a tough stretch in the schedule. The first game was a loss to the Cavs and my main notes were:

  • Deron – Passing has been really good and he took Kyrie off the dribble a couple of times and blocked him at the other end.
  • Wesley – Fast enough to help D and get back out though both guards (especially Barea) gave the Cavs too much space. Wes hit 2 big 3s and Derek Harper commented “Been doin it all year”

The Mavs then beat the Bulls. Deron and Wesley totally made Butler and Rose redundant. They played them to a draw. Unfortunately this was Noahs injury.

  • Wesley – Held an on fire Butler to 4pts, 5rebs, 6ast in 36 minutes. 
  • Bench – Carlisle seems to be able to take average guys and find a perfect role for them. Barea, McGee this year, Jet in the title run, Felton and Monta Ellis, he seems to give their game a boost (Rondo excepted)

The Mavs then took on the Spurs and lost, but it was the bigs that let them down. Zaza and McGee got killed and the Spurs had a field day with Diaw 16pts, LMA 23pts, Kawhi 15pts, West 8pts. Dirk and Zaza combined for 9 pts total.

GP and I also discussed the D-Will v D-Rose discussion. They are nearly the same tp be fair. One thing Deron is doing is matching up well with his man. He can not hang with the top 5 guys (Westbrook, Curry, Lowry etc) but against every middling player he can at least negate his man:

Irving: 22pt, 2reb, 9ast, 3TO, 1stl vs Deron: 16pt, 2reb, 10ast, 5TO, 1stl

Rose: 18pt, 4reb, 2ast, 1TO, 2Stl vs Deron: 18pt, 3reb, 6ast, 1TO, 0stl, 2blk

Parker: 2pts, 5reb, 7ast, 1TO, 2stl v Deron: 8pt, 5reb, 3ast, 2TO, 0stl

Thomas: 20pt, 4reb, 7ast, 2TO, 0stl v Deron: 20pt, 5reb, 6ast, 3TO, 0stl

It seems like Deron can match scoring when needed and can hang with his man more than Rose can. Contract for Contract I think I would prefer to have D-Will but only if I though my coach could motivate him. After all the trials and tribulations Rose has been through, a trade might piss him off and motivate him whereas I think Deron works best with a good coach and system. I hope both of them continue to stay injury free.

In terms of the Mavs they have a good team but need some toughness in the paint and need a big guard to come in off the bench. Parsons has been solid but could use some help. I think Carlisle could get something out of Boogie Cousins, but they don’t fit with the headcase thing. A guy like Drummond would be good for this team. Good luck with that though.

NBA Stats - 30Jan16 Bets